After EICMA in Milan, Motorcycle Live at the NEC, and now the press-launch season has started, it is time to reflect on how 2025 has positioned us as we make our 2026 predictions. [Like we know anything ~ Ed.]
Euro 5+
If you wondered why there was no end of pre-registered late‑2024 machines, it was caused by the arrival of Euro 5+ on 1st January. That made the end-of-2024 “sales” figures look rosy and turned the first half of 2025 into a cold shower, with registrations down ~11% across key markets.
Germany (-29%) and the UK (-19.8%) had the worst of it; Italy held up comparatively well, and Spain even nudged into positive territory.
Dealers were talking of unsold inventory and thinner margins; journalists spoke of “the cliff” effect – got to love a dramatic headline – but Suzuki still sold all of their GSX-S1000GT in the lighter shade of blue. I know because I was trying to buy one.
Behind the headlines, manufacturers rebalanced the production lines, pulling forward Euro 5+ models.
The European Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers (ACEM) newsfeed in 2025 has been a steady drumbeat of policy announcements, approvals and safety strategies that tell you where manufacturers are likely to spend the engineering hours in 2026
What to watch in 2026: fewer “stopgap” variants, more deep updates to engines and exhaust aftertreatment, plus pricing that reflects higher compliance costs, although no one seems to have told the Honda CB1000GT that.
Electrification
As much as I want to ignore it, because the motorcycles are too expensive and they take too long to charge, Electrification isn’t hype—it’s Government policy.
Reports tracking electric two-wheelers show solid growth through to 2033, and the marketing departments now blend stories of battery swapping and more intelligent charging.
The upside to electric motorcycles is low‑maintenance and torque-rich commuter bikes; the snag remains battery costs. Yet, several analyses show steady adoption, particularly where government incentives and urban congestion make e-scooters and lightweight e-motos the sensible choice.
Meanwhile, premium buyers expect connectivity, rider aids, and Over-The-Air updates; all the features that are increasingly standard on upmarket ICE bikes.
What to watch in 2026: more electric 125‑style propositions with credible range and faster charge times. The inclusion of city-focused features (navigation, keyless rider apps, smart charging) becoming table stakes.
ICE will still dominate in unit terms—but the inevitable march towards electrified city riding continues.
EICMA 2025
If you wandered EICMA with a notebook (and aching feet), you saw where brands think the next wins are. Honda grabbed headlines with its WN7 electric motorcycle priced at £13,000 and a wider E‑Clutch rollout—clear signals that Japan’s biggest is aligning with Europe’s tech‑and‑sustainability mood music.
The CB1000GT also tells a tale: touring isn’t dead, and you don’t have to break the bank to get a feature-rich 150BHP tourer. Honda sees this as a growth market and wants to dominate.
Beyond the big booths, there was a lively undercard: Zontes, CFMoto and ZXMOTO pitching multiple models as the Chinese manufacturers’ invasion of Europe continues.
What to watch in 2026: A big-budget Chinese motorcycle launch has to be on the cards, competing with the Japanese for media attention. Expect more talk of bio-based materials and recycling initiatives alongside the usual horsepower stats.
Market Fragmentation
While press packs stress the unique selling points and lifestyle images a motorcycle offers, dealers are feeling competitive pressure.
Chinese marques (Voge, Zontes, QJ Motors) are turning up with sharp pricing and decent spec sheets. The European market data shows traditional leaders under pressure—Yamaha down ~9.8%, BMW down ~13%, Piaggio hit by moped softness—as value-conscious buyers consider alternatives.
The graph below shows registration data for Japanese and European manufacturers in the “Big 5” markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). Overall, new sales for all manufacturers were down 10% in the first ten months, compared to 2024.
The countries don’t all report the data the same way, so some of this is our best guesstimates from the data we have. It is the overall trend, not cold, hard facts, that we are showing.
With Japanese and European manufacturers seeing a decline in sales, the European press shifted their tone on Chinese Motorcycles from “curiosity” to “comparative testing.”
It’s no longer unusual to see a newcomer stacked against class staples and coming away with a “compelling if the dealer network holds up” verdict. Meanwhile, broader market forecasts still place Honda top in unit share, reminding us that brand equity and after-sales support matter as much as spec sheets in Europe.
What to watch in 2026: deeper long-term tests of emerging brands, more scrutiny on warranty and parts logistics, and pricing battles in A2 and sub-400cc classes. If motorcycling is to attract new riders, this is the segment that matters.
Airbags and Rider Aids
A few years ago, airbag vests were a niche product found only in the race paddock; now they’re moving into mainstream reviews, backed by compelling data and quickly improving ergonomics.
Analysts peg the motorcycle airbag market to nearly double by 2030, and the European press increasingly treats airbags, rider aids, cornering ABS, and refined traction control as part of the core buying brief, not optional garnish.
The rider training conversation is also becoming more structured at an EU level, with industry groups pushing advanced training standards—a small but telling sign that safety is being framed as technology + rider skills, not technology alone.
For 2026 launches, expect more integrated sensor suites and user interfaces with fewer buttons and an intuitive design.
What to watch in 2026: more straightforward bundle pricing for safety tech in the midrange market, broader airbag compatibility across jackets, and more journalist road tests evaluating how the rider aids feel, not just whether they exist.
And if you want to know about Helite Airbags, we have been banging on about them for years.
2026 Predictions
So, after the gelato in Milan and the sausage cobs at the NEC, what sticks out for 2026?
More Regulation and the relentless push toward Electrification make your current ICE-engine motorcycles more valuable every day.
New entrants are keeping ticket prices honest, but watch for the percentage rates when financing.
It looks to be less about a single halo motorcycle discovered through standard group tests and more about the whole package.
Questions along the lines of “Did Euro 5+ compliance strangle a motorcycle’s character?”, coupled with reviews that assess connectivity to ensure it enhances rather than distracts, pricing that makes sense in a tight economy, and tests to see whether safety features feel invisible until they are needed, should be more commonplace.
The launch season will hype paint and power, of course – but the subtext in every write-up is likely to include whether the motorcycle (and the brand supporting it) makes daily sense in a market that’s changing quicker than most spec sheets can.
Now all we have to do is ride through winter and wait until December 2026 to see if I am anywhere near right.
